Retirement Withdrawal Calculator — 4% Rule & Sustainability
How long will your retirement savings last? Enter your portfolio size, expected investment return, inflation rate and withdrawal rate to see how much you can draw each year, whether the money runs out, and how the balance evolves year by year.
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years
First-year withdrawal amount; future years are inflation-adjusted upward
- 1
Year-1 annual withdrawal
500,000 × 4% ÷ 100 = 20,000First-year draw; each subsequent year is scaled up by the inflation rate. - 2
Real return (inflation-adjusted)
(1 + 0.05) ÷ (1 + 0.025) − 1 = 0.0244 - 3
Safe inflation-adj. annual withdrawal
500,000 × 0.0244 ÷ (1 − (1 + 0.0244)^−30) = 23,695The level real-money draw that exactly exhausts the portfolio after the target period.
How does this calculator work?
Retirement Withdrawal = Portfolio × Withdrawal Rate in year 1, then each year the draw rises with inflation while the balance grows with investment returns. A 4% rate on a balanced portfolio has historically lasted 30 years; use 3–3.5% for 40+ year retirements. The year-by-year chart shows if and when the portfolio runs out.
Formula
How this is calculated
This calculator simulates retirement drawdowns year by year. At the start of each year the portfolio grows by the nominal investment return; then the inflation-adjusted withdrawal is subtracted. The year-1 withdrawal equals the portfolio value times the withdrawal rate (e.g. 4%), and each subsequent year's withdrawal is scaled up by the assumed inflation rate to maintain the same purchasing power.
The "4% rule" popularised by the Trinity Study (1998) found that a 4% initial withdrawal rate from a balanced stock-bond portfolio succeeded in nearly all 30-year periods of US market history. However, the rule is a historical guideline based on US data — it may be too optimistic in low-return or high-inflation environments, or for longer retirements. A 3–3.5% rate is often recommended as a more conservative target for 40+ year retirements.
The calculator also computes a "safe inflation-adjusted withdrawal" — the level annual real-money draw that exactly exhausts the portfolio at the end of the target period — using the present-value annuity formula. Because all assumptions (return, inflation, timeline) are inputs, this tool is best used for scenario analysis rather than as a single binding plan. Tax on withdrawals, sequence-of-returns risk, and Social Security income are not modelled.
Frequently asked questions
The 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement, then adjusting the dollar amount for inflation each year. Research using 1926–1997 US data found this rate sustained a 30-year portfolio across nearly all historical scenarios with a 50–75% stock allocation. It is a useful starting point, not a guarantee.
Long-run US stock returns have averaged around 10% nominal (7% real). A balanced 60/40 portfolio might average 6–8% nominal. For inflation, long-run US CPI has averaged around 3%. Conservative planners often use 5–6% nominal return and 2.5–3% inflation to build in a safety margin.
No. Withdrawals from traditional retirement accounts (401k, IRA, RRSP) are typically taxable as ordinary income. The net withdrawal you can spend is the gross withdrawal minus income tax. Roth-type accounts have tax-free withdrawals. Adjust your gross withdrawal rate accordingly for your account type and expected tax bracket.
Also known as
TG we-Calculate Editorial Team. (2026). Retirement Withdrawal Calculator — 4% Rule & Sustainability [Online calculator]. TG we-Calculate. https://we-calculate.com/calculator/retirement-withdrawal-calculator
TG we-Calculate Editorial Team. "Retirement Withdrawal Calculator — 4% Rule & Sustainability." TG we-Calculate. 2026. https://we-calculate.com/calculator/retirement-withdrawal-calculator.
TG we-Calculate Editorial Team, "Retirement Withdrawal Calculator — 4% Rule & Sustainability," TG we-Calculate, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://we-calculate.com/calculator/retirement-withdrawal-calculator
@misc{wecalculate_retirement_withdrawal_calculator, title = {Retirement Withdrawal Calculator — 4% Rule & Sustainability}, author = {{TG we-Calculate Editorial Team}}, howpublished = {\url{https://we-calculate.com/calculator/retirement-withdrawal-calculator}}, year = {2026}, note = {TG we-Calculate} }
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