Early Retirement Calculator — FIRE Number & Timeline
Find out how many years until you can retire early (FIRE — Financial Independence, Retire Early). Enter your current savings, annual contributions, expected retirement expenses, expected real return, and withdrawal rate to get your target FIRE number and a year-by-year savings curve.
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Years until your portfolio can sustain your retirement expenses indefinitely
- 1
Withdrawal rate
w = 4% ÷ 100 = 0.04 - 2
FIRE number
40,000 ÷ 0.04 = 1,000,000The portfolio size that sustains your annual expenses indefinitely at the chosen withdrawal rate.
How does this calculator work?
Your FIRE number = annual expenses ÷ withdrawal rate (e.g. $40 000 ÷ 4% = $1 000 000). The calculator compounds your savings plus annual contributions at your real return each year until the portfolio hits that target, then shows the number of years needed and the sustainable income the portfolio can pay.
Formula
How this is calculated
The FIRE framework defines a target portfolio — the "FIRE number" — as your annual retirement expenses divided by your safe withdrawal rate. At the classic 4% rate, you need 25 times your annual expenses. This rule stems from the 1998 Trinity Study, which showed that a 4% withdrawal from a balanced US stock/bond portfolio survived every 30-year period in history back to 1926.
The calculator grows your current savings compound-interest style each year (adding your annual contribution), until the balance hits your FIRE number. It iterates year-by-year: balance in year n = balance_{n-1} × (1 + r) + annual contribution. The real (inflation-adjusted) return rate matters: the US stock market has averaged roughly 7% real over the long run, though past performance is not a guarantee. A more cautious 5–6% rate provides a larger safety buffer.
This model assumes a constant real return, fixed expenses, and steady contributions — all simplifications. Sequence-of-returns risk (a market crash early in retirement), taxes on withdrawals, healthcare, and social security are not modelled. For retirements expected to last more than 30 years, financial planners often recommend a 3–3.5% withdrawal rate for greater longevity insurance.
Frequently asked questions
The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one of retirement, then adjust for inflation each year, without running out of money over a 30-year period. That means your FIRE number is 25× your annual expenses. For retirements longer than 30 years — common when retiring in your 30s or 40s — a rate of 3–3.5% provides greater safety.
Use a real (inflation-adjusted) rate. US equities have returned roughly 7% real over long periods; a globally diversified portfolio often targets 5–7% real. Choosing conservatively (5–6%) makes the projection more robust if markets underperform. Never count on a nominal return without accounting for inflation.
No. The projection is pre-tax. In practice, withdrawals from traditional 401k/IRA accounts are taxed as ordinary income; Roth withdrawals are tax-free. Social security, pension income, or part-time work in early retirement can reduce your required portfolio size. Consult a fee-only financial planner for a personalised after-tax plan.
TG we-Calculate Editorial Team. (2026). Early Retirement Calculator — FIRE Number & Timeline [Online calculator]. TG we-Calculate. https://we-calculate.com/calculator/early-retirement-calculator
TG we-Calculate Editorial Team. "Early Retirement Calculator — FIRE Number & Timeline." TG we-Calculate. 2026. https://we-calculate.com/calculator/early-retirement-calculator.
TG we-Calculate Editorial Team, "Early Retirement Calculator — FIRE Number & Timeline," TG we-Calculate, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://we-calculate.com/calculator/early-retirement-calculator
@misc{wecalculate_early_retirement_calculator, title = {Early Retirement Calculator — FIRE Number & Timeline}, author = {{TG we-Calculate Editorial Team}}, howpublished = {\url{https://we-calculate.com/calculator/early-retirement-calculator}}, year = {2026}, note = {TG we-Calculate} }
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